Look above all, if the market appears,adjust, so the market is met how, I not apt estate occurrence inflection point this one viewpoint, because inflection point is on maths,have a definition. If we say estate market occurrence become divided, the means of differentiation what? Go up from theory for, if estate market appears,split up, exorbitant land price should have adjust, estate value can split up, this is theoretic view.
In fact, the price of land arrives now, arrive to did not rise April adjust. The 2nd, the estate value of different area can have differentiation sign apparently, this accords with a circumstance. The price become divided of each region markets is very serious now. The 3rd, the price of same property type will split up, generally speaking commerce is landed, especially office building and business shop price, because go 3 years two to do not have apparent rise, still can rise, the residence can drop. Assume we think the demand of the market is true, because consumer abandons buy,bridal chamber is mixed secondhand room, hire price also should rise, this is academic and such.
But the fact is very accident, arrive April, price of shop of office building, business continues very low fan, residential price drops, chummage price and we anticipate rising euqally. The 4th become divided, area county has outer suburbs to drop apparently, theory is such, the fact also is such, supply of value of estate of county of outer suburbs area is very large, still be used the concussion of room of room, small property right besides by price fixing room, economy. Price of house of county of place beyond suburb is not stabilized really. The 5th, the industry shuffles inevitable, have a few companies special lack capital, a few enterprises begin to plan buy annex. The 6th, although have various disaster, 08, every time hope monetary policy should have apparent relaxation, have clear support to developing loan, this is not quite actual. From academic reality it is such. Because arrive in April, estate company develops loan and did not decrease apparently, reductive is market demand, reductive is to mortgage loan.
We are analysed a little, involve estate fund gross 5.85 trillion, borrow by accumulation fund center, commercial bank those who go out is 5 trillion, mortgage loan fraction defective under 2% , estate develops loan to be in 22 kinds of all industries, loan platoon is in the 9th fraction defective. Mortgage loan fraction defective to be discharged in 22 kinds of industries in penult or the 3rd. Accordingly, the development that develops a business to estate borrows money, its risk level is medium probably slant on, very low to mortgaging loan fraction defective. Whole development is borrowed and mortgage borrow occupy scale of credit remaining sum probably 25% . This involves another issue, what is support of measurable to estate company credit, a lot of articles are written, already excessive to support of estate company credit, ask above all first these comrades are defined first measurable, define again next excessive.
